Abstract and Introduction
Abstract
There is uncertainty regarding the clinical effects of discontinuation of drugs for heart failure after long-term use. The withdrawal of long-term treatment can follow 1 of 4 distinct patterns: 1) loss of on-treatment effect with no observed changes following discontinuation (eg, prazosin); 2) attenuation or loss of on-treatment effect with rebound clinical worsening following discontinuation (eg, nitroprusside); 3) persistence of deleterious on-treatment effect followed by clinical worsening after discontinuation (eg, milrinone and flosequinan); and 4) persistence of favorable on-treatment effect followed by clinical worsening after discontinuation (eg, digoxin and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors). Persuasive evidence for persistence of efficacy has been demonstrated for the use of digoxin, diuretic agents, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors, and (to a limited extent) for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. Available evidence for worsening of clinical status following the withdrawal of neurohormonal antagonists largely consists of observational studies. However, their findings are difficult to interpret because of considerable confounding related to the fact that drugs were withdrawn for clinical reasons, which represented a more important contributor to the poor outcome of these patients than the withdrawal of an effective drug. Nevertheless, the totality of available evidence points to a meaningful clinical deterioration within a few weeks following the withdrawal for most drugs that have been evaluated for the treatment of heart failure. These findings suggests that that our current emphasis on the implementation of foundational drugs needs to include an equally important emphasis to avoid even short-term gaps in treatment.
Introduction
Current recommendations support the use of angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors, beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in all patients with heart failure and a reduced ejection fraction, with these treatments to be continued indefinitely for the lifetime of each patient.[1,2] However, these trials that established the efficacy of these drugs were not designed to provide evidence that the benefits of these drugs persist for the duration of treatment.
The conventional approach to the evaluation of a drug for the treatment of heart failure is to define a patient population of interest and to randomly assign (double-blind) one-half of the patients to placebo and the other half to active treatment, which is added to all appropriate other therapies for heart failure and continued for the entire duration of the trial, typically lasting for years. Patients are analyzed according to their original randomized treatment, whether or not therapy with placebo or the new treatment is sustained for the duration of follow-up, and whether or not background therapy is altered in a differential manner in the 2 treatment groups during the course of the trial. Such an intention-to-treat approach minimizes bias, but if adherence to the study medication changes dramatically and background therapy is differentially intensified in the placebo group, the estimated treatment effect is driven toward the null, thus distorting the ability of a trial to assess the true magnitude of benefit that might be produced by a drug’s pharmacological action.[3]
Many physicians believe that visual inspection of the pattern of separation of Kaplan-Meier curves displaying event rates in the 2 treatment arms provides reliable information about maintenance of a drug effect. However, visual interpretation of the onset and maintenance of separation of event curves is highly subjective and is prone to considerable confounding. Because patients are enrolled in the trial over a long period of recruitment, those represented on the right side of a Kaplan-Meier plot (providing the longest duration of follow-up) are those who were recruited early in the trial. These may or may not show a similar response to treatment than those recruited later in the study. Yet, the small number of events in these early-recruited patients can cause the Kaplan-Meier plots after years of follow-up to swing wildly, often causing the plots to separate or converge in ways that are inconsistent with the pattern of response of the treatment effect seen in most patients who provided the most followup data. Furthermore, if a disorder is lethal and the follow-up period is long, the survival rates in both treatment arms of a trial converge to 0%, even when drugs produce dramatic treatment effects.[4]
Interpretation of survival plots is further complicated by the fact that perceptions of a long-term treatment effect may be driven by a dramatic shortterm benefit experienced by a small fraction of patients. Imagine that a trial enrolled 10,000 patients hospitalized with myocardial infarction, of whom the 1,000 patients with the highest troponins would be at extreme risk of sudden death but only during the first month following coronary occlusion. Assume that the risk of sudden death during this vulnerable period in the at-risk population could be reduced from 90% to 10% with the use of a beta-blocker, but that the betablocker would have no benefit beyond the vulnerable period even in the highest-risk patients and would have no benefit at any time in patients with lower troponins. However, the investigators are not aware of these patterns of response when the trial is designed, and thus, the trial randomizes 10,000 patients to either placebo or a beta-blocker (in a 1:1 ratio) with treatment to be maintained for a median of 3 years. In the group with the highest troponins, at the end of 1 month, we would observe 450 deaths in the high-risk placebo group and 50 patients in the highrisk beta-blocker group. This 400-death betweengroup difference would cause the Kaplan-Meier curves to remain separated for the entire 3 years of double-blind therapy—even though, for most of the duration of follow-up, treatment with the betablocker was unnecessary. If the beta-blocker is withdrawn at the end of the trial, patients would not experience adverse consequences, even though the investigators might propose that continued separation of the event curves for the duration of follow-up implied a persistent treatment effect. For example, in CONSENSUS (Cooperative North Scandinavian Enalapril Survival Study), which enrolled patients with class IV heart failure, after 1 year of randomized therapy, most patients assigned to both the placebo and enalapril groups were treated with enalapril. The event curves maintained their separation for many years, even though the 2 treatment arms were being treated in a similar manner.[4] The outcome in the placebo and enalapril group converged only when nearly all patients had died.
Therefore, to evaluate whether a drug has a persistent effect, a trial must be designed to discern the presence or absence of an effect in an unbiased manner, typically by conducting a formal randomized evaluation of the withdrawal of therapy in patients with chronic heart failure who have taken the drug for long periods of time, ideally for several years. Such trials may be carried out in 1 of 2 ways. First, patients taking active therapy for many years and who are clinically stable can be randomly assigned (doubleblind) to be maintained on the drug (drug continuation group) or to receive placebo (drug discontinuation group) with the pharmacological and clinical responses being compared during and at the end of specified period of follow-up.[5] Second, patients who have participated in a long-term double-blind, placebo-controlled trial and are clinically stable can be required by protocol to stop their study medication at the trial’s end, leading to one-half of the patients being withdrawn from active therapy and the other half being withdrawn from placebo in a blinded manner.[6] Assuming that the trials are large enough and the duration of follow-up is long enough, either trial design can lead to interpretable results regarding identification of persistence of a drug effect. Withdrawal trials are a powerful approach to determining the persistence of a drug effect and informing guidance as to whether effective drugs need to be maintained for the lifetime of patients.[7]
J Am Coll Cardiol. 2025;84(22) © 2025 American College of Cardiology Foundation